6657f7bb8553a6fefb7195732c3c3c402e9bb419 — Asherah Connor 5 months ago 3285241
as best we can tell
M jekyll/_posts/2021-03-15-crosspost.md => jekyll/_posts/2021-03-15-crosspost.md +3 -3
@@ 8,9 8,9 @@ My other half --- not my partner, but the other half that makes "Asherah" up
here too much, but seeing as we're not on any social media, this might be a
time to introduce one to the other.

**Content note**: trigger warnings etc. are rarely used.  Read at your own
risk.  Content is highly personal and often covers developmental and sexual
<a id="more"></a>**Content note**: trigger warnings etc. are rarely used.  Read
at your own risk.  Content is highly personal and often covers developmental
and sexual issues.


A jekyll/_posts/2021-03-29-as-best-we-can-tell-the-pub-is-shut.md => jekyll/_posts/2021-03-29-as-best-we-can-tell-the-pub-is-shut.md +79 -0
@@ 0,0 1,79 @@
layout: post
title: "As best we can tell, the pub is shut"

I was alerted by a commenter that it's been more than a year, now, since this
video dropped:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/83cEEyTuAMM" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

COVID measures had already begun to be implemented; national borders shut, most
schools already closed.  Watching this press conference, [a scene from The
Simpsons](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0) played in my mind.  I'd
been getting a little comfy with a video editing program to record [IIDX
plays](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tzZYDXHHG4), so I gave it a crack.

I don't really have networks to tap, but Niki liked it so much she diligently
dropped it into comments on Facebook and Twitter replies wherever it seemed
appropriate.  Before I knew it, I had a moderately popular YouTube video.  It
entered the popular discourse when it was [further
remixed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hOK5JF5XGA), but if you ask me, the
Trump oversamples are just kinda gross.

One thing that's been interesting to see has been how the popularity of the
video corresponded with (literally) viral events:

![A graph showing the views for the video](/assets/post-img/views.png)

The three major events were:

* Late March, video released, Dan Andrews said "get on the beers".
* Mid-May, first lockdown restrictions eased.
* <a id="more"></a>October 26, Victoria recorded zero new cases/deaths for the
  first time since June.  Dan reported that he "might go a little higher up the
  shelf" than beers.



Daniel Andrews, Victoria's Premier, is widely liked, and he's largely been
credited with producing the results we've seen locally, the likes of which have
only really been seen in Taiwan, New Zealand and Singapore.  We've had our
share of anti-lockdown protests, too, but overall the sentiment has been that
Victorians have been willing to accept discomfort up front to mitigate a
disaster later.

Sharing this video online more recently has had some interesting reactions;
namely, Americans being like "lol government interference!!!"  Melbourne's
second lockdown was 112 days long (July 9 until October 28), and it was
challenging in its own ways, and for some very difficult.  I don't seek to deny
that, but the practical upshot has been a few dozen cases in the last six

![Graph from covid19data.com.au showing community spread of COVID in Victoria](/assets/post-img/community.png)

It's a fucking pandemic.  You don't just ask everyone nicely to please do the
right thing, because that's not human beings work at the population level.  If
you _actually_ want to beat it, you need to be realistic about what works.
Ideals falls flat in the face of an airborne pathogen.  If there are any doubts
about that, please consult [the big red number at the top
left](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).  Empirically, government
interference gets it done[^hif].

Someone in chat a couple weeks back lamented how they wish they could go out
again like normal, and I didn't have the heart to tell them that I had been for
nearly half a year now, safely; I just said, "in some places in the world you
can.  soon!"  Y'know, vaccinations proceeding apace and all that.

Another person agreed, saying Japan was reopening for dine-in in a couple
weeks, and the first said how much they wished the borders were open so they
could visit.  Japan reported 2,080 new cases this weekend, a steady increase
from the most recent low 7-day average of ~900 in early March.

![Japan's graph](/assets/post-img/japan.png)

That's not what I meant.

[^hif]: Never mind the fact that, say, Australia and New Zealand both rank higher in the [Human Freedom Index](https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index/2020) than the US---what matters is how you feel when you say it!

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